Posts by Condor Options
The easy approaches to the market that worked so well in 2012 and 2013 have performed poorly so far this year
Given the fierce market selloff in recent sessions, I thought it would be helpful to check on our favored set of risk indicators for the U.S. market.
So what has recent market activity meant for future returns?
On Sunday, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer wrote about the scale of recent events in Ukraine
You know that one slogan about how bearish investors always sound “smarter,” even if they’re wrong most of the time?
The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) launched in 2009, but after five years and many billions in transactions, it’s still a widely misunderstood product in some quarters
The intuition around ratios of option trading volume is that large deviations from normal trading volume may indicate a significant change in investor sentiment,
“‘Volatility Tourists’ Get Crushed,” exulted a column in Barron’s on Friday, referring to losses incurred that day by short volatility ETPs like XIV and SVXY.
I’ve updated the chart we showed last month (“The Rally No One Saw Coming“) with the trading range for the S&P 500 for 2014.
In 2013, being maximally long stocks was the only game in town, and investors who sought the safety of hedging strategies lagged unhedged indexes.
Here’s an interesting new paper from S&P Dow Jones Indices about dispersion and why it is a more valuable estimate than correlation.
Gold is down 22% from its early October high and people are scrambling. None of the fundamental reasons supposedly favoring a continued rally in metals have proven true.
Research is essential. Without it, it’s difficult to tell whether you aren’t just trading noise.
Silver prices have been really impressive in recent weeks:
Everyone knows that implied volatility and stock returns tend to be negatively correlated. The results from a recent study we did showed, though, that when implied volatility and stock returns become too negatively correlated, volatility sellers should consider moving to cash.
Since early 2012, hedge funds and other traders have been short S&P 500 volatility via VIX futures in sizes not seen before.
Monday's 1.9% decline in equities sparked the largest jump in the VIX since...
There's certainly some value in knowing the end of that sentence, but unless you're avoiding all financial media, you've probably already read a few variations of that story.