Options Unusual Activity

Options Outlook: GOOG, AAPL, RIM, ORCL, MSFT & More



Research in Motion-RIMM option prices Aggressive into EPS & Outlook
RIMM closed at $104.30. RIMM will report Q3 EPS on December 20, 2007. SBSH say's "RIMM continues to be our top North American handset pick."International CES will be held January 7-10 in Las Vegas. RIMM December103 straddle is priced at $12.35.  RIMM January option impliedvolatility of 78 is above its 26-week average of 53 according to TrackData, suggesting larger risk.

Apple-AAPL January volatility Elevated into 3G iPhone, Macworld,  CES & EPS
AAPL closed at $191.81. Steve Jobs is expected to introduce the Apple3G iPhone with pricing in early 2008.  Macworld will be held January14-18 in San Francisco.  International CES will be held January 7-10 inLas Vegas. AAPL is expected to report EPS in mid-January. AAPL December190 straddle is prices at $9. AAPL January option implied volatility of50 is above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data,suggesting larger price risk.


Google-GOOG March volatility of 36 is Skewed higher into EPS
GOOG closed at $694.04. International CES will be held January 7-10 inLas Vegas. GOOG will be participating in the 700 MHz spectrum auctionthat begins in January. GOOG is expected to report EPS in late January.GOOG December 690 straddle is at $24.70. GOOG January option impliedvolatility is at 32, March is at 36. GOOG'sA  average option impliedvolatility over the last 26-weeks is 31 according to Track Data,suggesting larger risk after January expiration on January 18, 2008.

Oracle-ORCL option prices Up into Q2 EPS & Outlook
ORCL is expected to announce Q2 EPS on December 19th. CIBC said onDecember 13th "with more than 50% of license and total rev's comingfrom int'l mkts, we believe ORCL is somewhat insulated from a potentialNT slowdown in domestic IT spending." CIBC has a $24 price target onORCL. ORCL December 22.5 straddle is priced at $1.55. ORCL Januaryoption implied volatility of 39 is above its 26-month average of 31according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Evergreen Solar-ESLR volatility Elevated into 10-year supply agreement
ESLR develops, manufactures and markets solar products announced itsigned a 10-year polysilicon supply agreement with Silicum de ProvenceSAS. ESLR is recently up $2.49 to $17.63 in pre-open trading.  ESLRover all option implied volatility of 78 is above its 26-week averageof 61 according to Track Data, indicating larger price risk.

Black & Decker-BDK volatility Flat into lower Q4 guidance
BDK is recently trading at $74.45 in pre-open trading, below its closeof $80.13. BDK lowered its fourth-quarter guidance onworse-than-expected business conditions in North America, a recall ofcordless drills and a tax settlement. BDK over all option impliedvolatility of 34 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data,suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

Rigel Pharmaceuticals-RIGL volatility at 97 after sharp rally on positive results
RIGL announced positive P2 clinical trail results with its oralcompound R788 in rheumatoid arthritis on December 13th. RIGL ralliedfrom a close of $8 on December 12th to close at $25.95 on December13th. JEFF raised its price target on RIGL to $32. RIGL over all optionimplied volatility of 97 is below its 26-week average of 103 accordingto Track Data.

Harrah's-HET volatility increases as Arbitrage spread widens on Risk
HET closed at $87.12. HET accepted a $90 share bid from Apollo/TexasPacific Group on December 19, 2006; the deal is expected to close soon.HET over all option implied volatility of 29 is above its 26-weekaverage of 18 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
 
InterOil Corp-IOC June 40 Calls active, June volatility spikes to 98
IOC has been frequently mentioned as a takeover name in the past. IOCis a Canadian oil exploratory company with operations in eastern PapuanBasin New Guinea. IOC June 40 calls have traded 7 times on transactionvolume of 440 contracts, above its open interest of 718 contracts. IOCMarch and June option implied volatility of 98 is above its 26-weekaverage of 83 according to Track Data, indicating large price movement.

Biogen-BIIB volatility stays Elevated after large sell off
BIIB is recently up $1.22 to $59.13. BIIB announced on December 12th itwill continue to be an independent company. DBAB has a Buy rating witha $63 price target. BIIB call option volume of 11,762 contractscompares to put volume of 8,999 contracts.  BIIB December 60 straddleis at $3.70. BIIB January option implied volatility of 47 is below alevel of 55 from earlier in the week, but above its 26-week average of37 according to Track Data, suggesting options traders expectedmovement. 
 
JA Solar-JASO Dec. straddle priced for continued wide movement after 12% rally
JASO, a Chinese-based solar cell manufacturer, is recently up $6.70 to$69.75. PIPR raised its price target to $100 after meeting withmanagement. JASO December 70 straddle is priced at $7.10. JASO Januaryoption implied volatility of 86 is above its 26-week average of 80according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
 

Microsoft-MSFT volatility Elevated at 29 into CES & EPS
MSFT's Bill Gates will give the pre-show keynote address atInternational CES on January 6th in Las Vegas. CES features 2,700exhibitors spanning 30 product categories. MSFT is expected to reportEPS on January 24th. MSFT over all option implied volatility of 28 isabove its 6-month average of 24 according to Track Data, suggestinglarger risk.  Paul Foster

CMGI Inc-CMGI volatility of 61 at low end of range
CMGI, a company that helps businesses, closed at $13.47. CMGI over alloption implied volatility of 61 is below its 5-week average of 77according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk. Paul Foster

Adobe-ADBE December option prices up into EPS
ADBE is scheduled to report on EPS on December 17. ADBE closed at$43.90. KBRO said on December 13 "once again the focus this quarterwill be the strength of the Creative Suite 3 Cycle. The product waslaunched at the end of the March and has been the driver of growth." KBRO has a Buy rating and a $52 price target on ADBE. ADBE December 45straddle is priced at $2.55. ADBE January option implied volatility of30 is below its 6-month average of 33 according to Track Data. PaulFoster

WellCare Health-WCG volatility at 71 as shares trend up after large October sell off
WCG closed at $48.29. WCG is a provider of managed care services togovernment-sponsored healthcare programs WCG Board of Directors hasbeen conducting an independent investigation raised by inquiries fromThe U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) law enforcement personnel with theFBI, the U.S. Office of Inspector General and Florida Attorney GeneralsMedicaid fraud control unit.  WCG January option implied volatility of71 is above its 6-month average of 64 according to Track Data,suggesting larger risk. Paul Foster

Baidu-BIDU January volatility flat as BIDU near record high
BIDU,a Chinese language internet search provider, is recently up $2.32 to$389.32 in pre-open trading.  RBCM say's "BIDU is accelerating onceagain, and we have raised our 2008 and 2009 estimates and our target to$423."  BIDU December 390 straddle is priced at  $27.70. BIDU Januaryoption implied volatility of 64 is near its 6-month average of 60according to Track Data.  Paul Foster

Bear Stearns-BSC Dec. straddle at $7.45 into EPS & credit position holdings
BSC is expected to report EPS in December 20. BSC December 100 straddleis priced at $7.45. BSC January option implied volatility of 54 isabove its 6-month average of 47 according to Track Data. Paul Foster

BioMarin-BRMN volatility at 57, BMRN rallies on FDA marketing approval
BMRN announced during the afternoon of December 13th that the FDAgranted marketing approval for Kuvan, the first specific therapyapproved for the treatment of  phenylketonuria (treatment to controlPhe levels in PKU patients). BMRN is recently up $6.19 to $35.85 inpre-open trading. BARD raised its price target to $40. BMRN over alloption implied volatility of 57 is below its 4-week average of 67according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk. Paul Foster

Intercontinental Exchange-ICE volatility Flat, shares at record on ending futures floor trading
ICEis recently up $8.69 to $189.28 after announcing it will end openoutcry trading of futures contracts at ICE Futures (exchange formerlythe NYBOT). WCHV say's "our new range for ICE is $200-$210 per share."ICE over all option implied volatility of 46 is near its 6-monthaverage according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional pricemovement.  Paul Foster

Palm-PALM volatility Up; shares near three-year low into full EPS
PALM is recently down 13c to $5.58. PALM is expected to report full Q3EPS results on December 20th after pre-announcing a EPS miss last week.BAMO has a Neutral rating with a price target of $5 on PALM. PALM overall option implied volatility of 72 is above its 6-month average of 37according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.  Paul Foster
 
Trane-TT call volume & volatility Spikes indicating upcoming Bullish catalyst
TT is recently up $2.12 to $37.96. TT has traded 20,000 calls and 3,000puts. TT January option implied volatility of 75 is above its 26-weekaverage of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Trane-TT call volume & volatility Spike suggests price movement
TT is recently up $1.80 to $37.63.  TT enhances the quality and comfortof the air in homes and buildings. TT has a market cap of $7.3 billionwith long term debt of $2.2 billion. TT call option volume of 37,867contracts compares to put volume of 4,514 contracts. TT December 35straddle is priced at $5.10. TT January option implied volatility of 78is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggestinglarger risk.

Trane-TT call volume & volatility Aggressive
TT is recently up $1.74 to $37.56.  TT enhances the quality and comfortof the air in homes and buildings. TT call option volume of 38,323contracts compares to put volume of 4,603 contracts. TT December 35straddle is priced at $5.10. TT January option implied volatility of 77is above its 6-month average of 35 according to Track Data.  Paul Foster

Select Comfort-SCSS volatility Elevated at 60 on recent sell off
SCSS, a personalized sleep product company, is recently down 30c to$6.34. SCSS announced on December 12 it wouldn't meet it previous 2007sales or profit guidance. SCSS has a market cap of $281 million withzero long term debt.  SCSS had September quarterly 2007 revenue of $213million. Wedbush Morgan say's "Gloomy outlook for 2008; reducingestimates and target; reiterated Hold." SCSS over all option impliedvolatility of 60 is above its 26-week average of 43 according to TrackData, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

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About Paul Foster


Paul Foster is a former member of the Chicago Board Options Exchange with 21-years of professional experience in the capital markets, investments, trading, corporate finance, arbitrage, options and mergers & acquisitions. His writing about the options market has appeared in a wide variety of publications.

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