GameStop (GME) Earnings Play with Options and Volatility
GameStop (GME) - Earnings Play with Options and Volatility Divergence
At the time of this post, GME is trading at 18.18. The summary is below.
It is important to note that the company has earnings 3-18-2010 Before Market Open. That’s the Thursday of expiration week.
The Skew Tab snapshot is included (click to enlarge). Notice the extreme vol in the front month (red) relative to the other months (and specifically the second month - yellow).
Red - Front month
Yellow - Second month
Green - Third month
Blue - Fourth month
Earnings is a vol event and as the number of "normal" vol days lessen and the "vol event" becomes a greater proportion of the volatility you can see this type of divergence. The Options Tab snapshot is below - click to enlarge.
I’ve highlighted the Mar and Apr ATM straddles. You can see the fair value for the Mar ATM straddle is ~$1.55. The Apr is ~$2.17 or $0.62 higher. Note that Mar IV is 98 vs Apr IV of 45 (top of the snapshot).
Finally, the Charts Tab (1 year) is below (click to enlarge). Note in the upper portion (the stock price) you can see the earnings dates denoted by the "E" icons. While the stock is certainly volatile right after earnings - it does have a tendency to move substantially a few days after earnings as well - in this case we’re looking for movements 3 days after earnings or more.
Hypothetically someone could sell the high vol straddle (March), buy the low vol straddle (Apr) and pay ~ $0.62. After two days the high vol straddle expires and that trade leaves you with an Apr straddle. This trade can certainly lose - especially if the move on earnings day is huge. But if the move isn’t that big, or alternatively if the stock is volatile several days after earnings (like in the past), someone could own a cheap straddle with a lot of vol to come.
This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.
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