As of this post coffee prices are higher by 4.44% with?prices approaching?previous?resistance?just below the 50?day MA (light blue line) that was?challenged?last week. Prices appear to be on the rise as money managers bought the dip?this?week when?prices?were trading near three weeks?lows. I?anticipate?funds piling into coffee?longs?next week buying upwards of 10,000 contracts as they re-balance their?positions?at the start of this new year. That?addition?would?raise?open interest by?almost?8%.?Producing countries will likely cap this market from raging ?higher?but I do think?prices?could gain an?additional?5-10 cents from current trade?especially?if short?covering?plays out.
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010314Coffee1
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Trade ideas:
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  • Long (1) in the money March $115 call for under $1800 and sell (2) March $125 calls for $525 per. You would collect just over $1000 and pay $1800 so out of pocket premium is $800 plus three transaction costs. I see a grind higher so you may be able to offset on higher trade or hold until expiration as I do not see future sustainable above $125 considering current supply and demand. The trade has 41 days and currently has a favorable delta of 13%.?
  • Long May futures and sell an out of the?money?May?call 1:1.?Selling?a $120?would?give?you just better than a?$2000?cushion. You should pick up?approximately?1/2 of the?underlying?move. 99 days until?expiration?and look for?an exit if futures were to rally 5-10 cents rally in the?coming?weeks.?Offset?both?legs?at the?same time.?

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